Severe storm risk upped to moderate, egg-sized hail storm heading toward Lake Michigan

Here’s our last fine-tuned forecast from the Storm Prediction Center before the severe storms roll into Michigan.

It’s pretty apparent now that somewhere in the southwest corner of Lower Michigan will be in the path of individual supercell thunderstorms now forming in Wisconsin. The supercell thunderstorm west of Milwaukee has been going since around 3 pm Supercells are thunderstorms that can live for hours. This storm has produced egg-sized hail, which was measured at just over 2 inches in diameter.

So the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has increased the chance of damaging winds to 45% over far southwest Lower Michigan. They have also expanded the coverage of the 10% chance of isolated 75 mph tastes.

Here is the latest outline.

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Overall severe storm risk has been increased to moderate for far southwest Lower Michigan.

The fine-tuning of what we know now is that any individual storm in the southern third of Lower Michigan could produce a 75 mph wind gust. Earlier the chance of significant tastes of 75 mph was confined to far southern Lower Michigan. The 45 percent chance of severe wind tastes covers Benton Harbor, Niles, Cassopolis, Three Rivers, Kalamazoo, Sturgis and Coldwater.

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Damaging wind forecast has been increased to 45 percent chance and a 10 percent chance of 75+ mph gusts in black hatched area.

Much of the shape of the area of ​​damaging wind forecast is based on what is happening in Wisconsin as of 5:30 pm

There is still a chance of a few tornadoes, and any tornado could have strength.

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Tornado risk forecast still is at five percent for a large part of southern Lower.

There have been several 2-inch hail reports in Wisconsin. The large hail forecast shows the expected track of the Wisconsin storms across southern Lower Michigan.

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Large hail forecast continues to point toward hail in any thunderstorm over southern Lower.

So the trend is still toward an increasing confidence of a few very severe thunderstorms. Now I will just track the storms with you as they develop across southern Lower Michigan. You can find all of the update posts here, and join the Michigan Weather Facebook page that we run here at MLive. You get a lot of great severe weather reports from fellow Michiganders as the storms hit their area.

Park your good car in the garage, and stay close to shelter for a possibly very stormy evening and overnight.

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